24 February 2008

UNICEF releases new MICS survey data

UNICEF has released the first datasets from the third round of Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), conducted in 2005 and 2006. The first round of MICS surveys was carried out around 1995, followed by a second round of surveys around 2000.

MICS surveys are nationally representative household surveys that were developed by UNICEF in collaboration with other organizations to collect data on the situation of children and women. The most recent round of surveys collected data on household characteristics, education, child labor, water and sanitation, child mortality, maternal and newborn health, knowledge of HIV and AIDS, contraceptive use, birth registration, and other areas. The data can be used to track progress toward the UN Millennium Development Goals and other goals. The MICS program is described in detail on the Childinfo website of UNICEF.

In the area of education, the latest MICS surveys provide data for the following household member characteristics:
  • highest level of education
  • current school attendance
  • school attendance in the previous year
  • literacy
With the data it is possible to calculate primary and secondary school enrollment rates, repetition and dropout rates, survival rates, and other education statistics. The MICS surveys also allow detailed disaggregation of the data, for example by gender, area of residence, or household wealth. Examples for the kind of analysis that is possible with MICS data can be seen in previous articles on this site, for example on child labor and school attendance in Bolivia, educational attainment in India, or years of schooling and literacy.

The MICS datasets are available for download in SPSS format from the Childinfo website. The datasets are provided free of charge but interested researchers have to apply for a MICS username and password. At the time of writing, datasets from the following countries were available: Bangladesh, Belarus, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Jamaica, Mongolia, Montenegro, Serbia, Sierra Leone, and Uzbekistan. In addition, survey questionnaires, survey reports, and a set of standard tabulations are provided. The questionnaires, tables, and reports can be downloaded without access restrictions.

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Friedrich Huebler, 24 February 2008, Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2008/02/unicef-releases-new-mics-survey-data.html

11 February 2008

Survival rate to the last grade of primary school

Since January 2008, the survival rate to the last grade of primary school is an official indicator to track progress toward the second UN Millennium Development Goal (MDG), which calls for universal primary education by the year 2015. The survival rate to the last grade is the percentage of a cohort of students who enter the first grade of primary education and who are expected to reach the last grade, regardless of repetition.

As an example, assume that primary school has four grades. Assume further that 100 children enter grade one and that 5 of these children drop out from school before they reach the last grade. The remaining 95 children reach grade four, with or without repeating one or more grades. In this case, the survival rate to the last grade is 95 / 100 = 95%.

As a previous article on this site explains, the survival rate to grade five was used an official indicator for MDG 2 until 2007. The survival rate to the last grade is a better indicator because it can be calculated for countries with fewer than five grades of primary school and because it is more in line with the goal of universal primary education.

The map below shows the most recent statistics on the survival rate to the last grade from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). In most cases, the statistics are from the year 2005. The next revision of the UIS database, expected in mid-2008, will contain survival rates for 2006.

Survival rate to the last grade of primary school, 2005
Map of the world showing national survival rates to the last grade of primary school, 2005
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, January 2008.

The current UIS database lists the survival rate to the last grade for 154 countries. The values range from 25% in Nauru and Uganda to 100% in Croatia, Cyprus, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Norway, Spain, and Tajikistan. In addition to Nauru and Uganda, nine other countries have survival rates below 50%: Chad (26%), Rwanda (31%), Equatorial Guinea (33%), Malawi (34%), Mauritania (39%), Madagascar (43%), Turks and Caicos Islands (45%), and Benin and Mozambique (46%). In these eleven countries, more than half of all children who start attending primary school drop out before they reach the last grade.

Ten countries have survival rates in the range 50-60%, 20 each are in the range 60-70% and 70-80%, 26 countries have survival rates from 80% to 90%, and in 67 countries 90% or more of all primary school entrants reach the last grade. As the map shows, almost all countries with survival rates below 60% are located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The following table compares average survival rates in the different MDG regions. In the group of developed countries, in the countries from the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Republics), and in Eastern Asia, almost all children reach the last grade of primary school. In contrast, fewer than two thirds of all first grade students in Sub-Saharan Africa reach the last grade. Survival rates are also relatively low in Northern Africa and Oceania (78%), and in Southern and South-Eastern Asia (84%). In Western Asia and Latin America, around 90% of all first grade students reach the last grade.

Survival rate to the last grade of primary school, 2005
MDG region Survival rate to last grade (%)
Male FemaleTotal
Developed countries 99.199.299.2
Commonwealth of Independent States99.699.099.4
Eastern Asia98.998.898.8
South-Eastern Asia84.584.384.4
Oceania78.478.278.3
Southern Asia84.583.083.8
Western Asia88.786.988.0
Northern Africa75.381.878.3
Sub-Saharan Africa64.363.163.9
Latin America and the Caribbean90.590.190.4
World85.184.584.9
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, January 2008.

The average survival rate to the last grade at the global level is 85%, with virtually no difference between boys and girls. However, gender disparities exist in some regions, in particular in Northern Africa, were girls, with an average survival rate of 82%, are more likely to continue their education to the last grade of primary school than boys, whose survival rate is 75%.

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Friedrich Huebler, 11 February 2008, Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2008/02/survival-rate-to-last-grade-of-primary.html

04 February 2008

Official MDG targets and indicators

Progress toward the UN Millennium Development Goals is monitored with an official list of MDG indicators. These indicators are endorsed by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDG Indicators, whose work is coordinated by the United Nations Statistics Division. At its last meeting in November 2007, the IAEG agreed on a revised set of MDG indicators that will be used for the next global assessment of progress in 2008. In the area of education, the following goals and indicators are now in effect.

Millennium Development Goals and indicators related to education
Goals and targets Indicators for monitoring progress
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling. 2.1 Net enrolment ratio in primary education.
2.2 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary.
2.3 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men.
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015. 3.1 Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education.
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of
HIV/AIDS.
6.4 Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years.

Most of these indicators are unchanged, with one exception. The survival rate to the last grade of primary school (indicator 2.2) replaces the survival rate to grade 5 of primary school that was previously used as one of the indicators for MDG 2, universal primary education by 2015. The survival rate to the last grade is a better indicator for this goal than the survival rate to grade 5. First, the survival rate to grade 5 is not relevant in countries where primary school has only four grades and for such countries the UNESCO Institute for Statistics does not provide estimates for this indicator. Second, the survival rate to grade 5 offers no information on continued school attendance in countries where primary school has more than five grades. Estimates of the survival rate to grade 5 can therefore provide an incomplete picture of progress toward universal primary education. In contrast, the survival rate to the last grade can be used in all countries, regardless of the official duration of primary school.

The complete list of indicators is available at the official UN site for the MDG indicators.

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Friedrich Huebler, 4 February 2008 (edited 17 October 2008), Creative Commons License
Permanent URL: http://huebler.blogspot.com/2008/02/official-mdg-targets-and-indicators.html